Michele MacDonald -
The often rocky and steeply uphill road of 2023 has finally reached its end and we are embarking on the way to the future.
Yet, at least from the point of view of North America, the new path cuts through the murkiness of the unknown.
As racing continues to grapple with issues of falling foal production and other daunting business challenges another immediate issue looms.
As the year begins, there are no truly dazzling stars lighting the American firmament.
Trainer John Sadler, who so brilliantly developed Flightline into the World’s Best Racehorse of 2022, noted the dearth of talent in some typically terse, but spot-on comments, late in December. “So many of our good dirt horses went home,” Sadler said, referring to America’s leading runners aged three and older.
“We're retiring so many of these horses so soon - mine included," he said, referring to Flightline.
"There's great opportunity in that division."
Opportunity is the positive spin as well as a goal for trainers, but here’s another side of the reality.
Of the top 20 runners based on earnings in North America in 2023, eight are retired, including Classic winners Arcangelo and Mage as well as Godolphin luminaries Cody’s Wish and Proxy; one, Art Collector, passed away; two are European-based, and four are fillies or mares unlikely to make the starting gate in the biggest non-restricted races.
That leaves only five of the top-achieving males still in training, a relatively small pool from which to draw potential runners for the Dubai World Cup and Saudi Cup programs.
Breeders’ Cup Classic victor White Abarrio leads the overall list of top American earners of 2023 with $3.88 million, as well as the list of those still in training.
The grey son of Race Day, who has been listed as possibly aiming for the Saudi Cup and/or the Dubai World Cup, worked five furlongs at Santa Anita Park on Christmas Eve in his first move since the Breeders’ Cup for trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.
Dubai racing fans will remember that Dutrow sent out both Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Benny the Bull and Godolphin Mile hero Diamond Stripes in 2008.
After top earner White Abarrio, the next American male high earner still in training is Arabian Knight, who was 13th on the list with $1.46 million. The winner of the 2000m, Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes for trainer Bob Baffert, Arabian Knight has been named by owner Amr Zedan as a candidate for the Saudi Cup and could also travel on to Dubai.
Grade 1 winners Angel of Empire, who was sent for a vacation in the summer by trainer Brad Cox, and National Treasure, who won the Preakness Stakes for Baffert, are the final two male high earners of 2023 who raced on dirt.
The former has not been given set goals by his connections while the latter could aim for the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park in late January.
Others who may show up in Riyadh, include Grade 1 winners Saudi Crown and Defunded, with the latter recently purchased and relocated to Saudi Arabia by Dr. Muhaideb Abdullah Almuhaideb's HDB Racing Stable.
Defunded ranked 28th on the list of American earners of 2023 when trained by Baffert, while Saudi Crown was 40th after having been developed by Cox.
Thankfully, for the sake of racing competition, trainer Richard Mandella has emerged with two strong candidates for supporting stakes on the Dubai World Cup and Saudi Cup programmes. Mandella mentioned Forbidden Kingdom, a Grade 1-placed and multiple Grade 2-winning son of American Pharoah, as a possible candidate for the Dubai Golden Shaheen, and he has Planetario, a multiple Grade 1 winner in his native Brazil and a Grade 2 winner in America, set for the Red Sea Handicap in Riyadh and then the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan.
Instrumental in helping establish the Dubai World Cup with the likes of inaugural runner-up Soul of the Matter, Mandella saddled the winner of the 2004 edition of the race, Pleasantly Perfect.
As we look forward, it does not appear that 2024 will be a vintage year for America at Meydan Racecourse, but then again, we have to remember that horses can - and often do - surprise us.
With only about three months to go before the starting gate opens for the Dubai World Cup, there isn’t much time for exciting new contenders to emerge. Yet one of the most alluring aspects of the sport is that just about anything can and does happen.
With that in mind, don’t count out the Americans just yet.
